343. Sales Went Up. What Did You Actually Buy With the Promotion?

343. Imagine a promotion lifts sales by 35%. That sounds like a win. But did you acquire a valuable shopper, create a new occasion, increase the basket, earn repeat purchases, or simply pay someone to buy three weeks of product early?

In Episode 343 of Bulletproof Your CPG Brand, I explain why measuring trade promotion ROI requires more than looking at sales lift. An event can look great on the chart while margin erosion, allowances, retailer deductions and delayed cash recovery leave the brand with less working capital.

I also share a lesson from selling chips against a national competitor with a much larger promotion budget. Rather than copying its buy-one-get-one-free events, I promoted earlier to influence shopper timing. The strategy helped us create a more useful outcome for the retailer, reinforced by reliable execution and stronger retail relationships.

You'll learn the three questions I ask about every promotion: SOURCE, RETENTION and INCREMENTALITY. Then I'll walk through five planning questions you can use before spending the next dollar.

Your Retail Muscle rep: Choose the next promotion on your calendar. Define its job, the shopper behavior you want to change, expected volume source, retailer value, true cost, and the evidence you'll review afterward. Decide what you'll do if your assumption is wrong.

Free tool: https://retailsolved.com/promotion-analysis/ — Use the calculator without an email. Email yourself a scenario only if you want a copy for later comparison.

Show notes and free Founder Problem Finder: https://retailsolved.com/session343/

The goal is not to prove the last promotion worked. It's to make the next decision better.

Chapters

00:00 Sales Went Up. What Did You Actually Buy?

01:01 Why Sales Lift Does Not Prove Promotion ROI

01:51 How Deductions Tie Up Working Capital