One Global Shock, Different Rate Paths

The energy shock is global, but the policy response isn’t uniform. In the second of our two-part roundtable, our economists unpack the forces shaping interest rates across the U.S., Europe and Asia. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research.  Michael Gapen: I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist.  Jens Eisenschmidt: I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist. Chetan Ahya: And I’m Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.  Seth Carpenter: Yesterday, we talked about why global growth is continuing to power on, why investment is playing a larger role, and how that investment cycle is spreading across regions. Today, we're going to take a deeper dive and think about monetary policy and what's going on. It's Friday, October 23rd, at 10am New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: When I look around the world and think about especially developed market central banks, well, they're kind of all tightening at the same time – but maybe for somewhat different reasons.  Let's start with just a really broad policy question. Why are the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan all tightening policy when their economies look so different?  Mike, I'm going to start with you back here in the U.S. with the Fed. How are you thinking about what the Fed is doing right now? Are they just recalibrating the stance of policy? Or is this a fundamental change where they're trying to rein in growth in the economy?  Michael Gapen: The way I look at it is this is a story about persistent inflation, and I would look at it as a recalibration of policy. I think the majority of participants on the FOMC know the Fed can't pump more oil or get, you know, oil through the Strait of Hormuz. So, it's about leaning against second-round effects. Inflation is gradually moving lower. They've characterized this as dissatisfaction with the speed of convergence to the target.  So, I think the Fed is tightening based on persistent inflation, and it appears to me to be more about a recalibration than it is about meaningfully tightening policy and leaning into demand.  Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens. Same question coming to you, and I have to say the energy shock is a global shock. So how do you think about what's going on with the tightening of the ECB and the Bank of England?  Je