Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal

<p>Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech&#39;s long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.</p><p>In this month&#39;s Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.</p><p>We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart&#39;s relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the &quot;Modest Seven,&quot; are central to that case.</p><p>Topics covered:</p><ul><li>Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market call</li><li>His financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economy</li><li>How restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantage</li><li>The delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprises</li><li>Technology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocks</li><li>AI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profits</li><li>How two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioning</li><li>The divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the &quot;Modest Seven&quot;</li><li>What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growth</li><li>Why rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advance</li></ul><p>Follow Jim Paulsen:</p><p><a href="https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/">Paulsen Perspectives</a><br><a href="https://x.com/jimwpaulsen">Jim Paulsen on X</a></p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>00:00 Jim Paulsen&#39;s outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call<br>07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period<br>14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently<br>20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects<br>26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy<br>30:18 Can AI break the hist