Après Trump

Three hundred thousand tons of diesel (tons, not barrels) is what Trump says he extracted from Putin. The deal is easy to mock, but it’s worth understanding why it happened. Diesel is at record highs, and every European leader publicly condemning the move is privately relieved somebody finally told Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries. What the 5D-chess crowd misses is simpler: Ukraine and Iran are now the same war, because diesel trades globally and two kinetic conflicts are squeezing the same supply. From there, the harder question- what comes after Trump? America still wins gold, but it needed a Cameroonian center to beat a team of pudgy Serbs. The games are tighter now.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:02) - Paris Market Fire

(02:27) - Trump Diesel Deal Readout

(03:55) - Energy War and Hormuz

(08:39) - Zelensky Leverage and Midterms

(21:14) - After Trump and Multipolarity

(37:53) - Limited Force Iran

(38:50) - Trump Strategy Document

(39:48) - Neocons Versus Deals