Jim Bianco: Why I’m Finally Buying Bonds After Six Years

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Jim Bianco of Bianco Research called the 2022 bond bear market and stayed bearish on bonds for six years. Now, for the first time since then, he’s constructive.

Jim explains why 5% yields aren’t punishing but normal: rates should roughly track nominal GDP growth, and he expects the U.S. economy to grow at 5–6% nominally. He makes the case that inflation is stuck at 3% because the era of cheap Chinese goods is over, and explains why oil is already effectively $200 a barrel once you count tanker costs and naval security in the Strait of Hormuz. He also covers why diesel shows up in the price of everything, and why Kevin Warsh scrapping forward guidance has left markets feeling around in the dark.

On credit, Jim explains why the blowout in CCC bonds, CoreWeave included, is a handful of problem kids in detention rather than a canary in the coal mine. On AI, he argues it’s 1997, not 2000, and that the bigger risk may be that AI works.

Follow Jim on X: @biancoresearch

Bianco Research: biancoadvisors.com

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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