#421 Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike

<p>In this week&#39;s episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.</p><p><br></p><p>Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/</p><p><br></p><p>Links:    </p><p>The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  </p><p>Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    </p><p>https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X</p><p><br></p><p>Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst <a href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing" target="_blank">https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing</a></p><p><a href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing" target="_blank">⁠</a></p><p>Timestamps: </p><p>00:00 Intro and welcome back</p><p> 00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses”</p><p> 02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing?</p><p> 03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war</p><p> 07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path?</p><p> 08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again</p><p> 09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices</p><p> 11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference</p><p> 13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected</p><p> 15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor</p><p> 17:13 Will t